The Matched Betting Trading qKelly planner bridges the gap between a pricing model and a real staking decision: fair decimal price, current odds, expected value, fractional Kelly size, exact model stake, and a rounded practical stake for clearer tracking.
Kelly staking is highly sensitive to the fair price. Treat the number as a sizing check only when the model price is reliable.
Enter your bankroll, fair price, current odds, and Kelly fraction to calculate EV, model qKelly stake, and practical rounded stake.
qKelly starts from your own fair price instead of treating the available odds as the only guide. That matters because value betting is a pricing question first: is the current price above the price your model thinks is fair, after the costs and uncertainty have been allowed for?
Fractional Kelly then turns that edge into a controlled stake. Many model-led users prefer a fraction of full Kelly because fair prices are estimates, results are noisy, and protecting the bankroll is part of staying consistent over a large sample.
The planner does not create value on its own. It helps you avoid working only from bookmaker or exchange prices by comparing those prices with your own probability view. If the fair price is wrong, the stake output is wrong too.
Used well, the workflow changes the question from a stake that feels right to whether the fair price shows enough edge, and what stake is proportionate to that edge.
The planner uses decimal odds. If you enter a fair price of 3.00 and current odds of 3.30, the fair probability is 33.33% and the raw edge is +10.00% before commission. From there it shows the full calculation path from model edge to practical stake.
The useful part is the sequence: fair price to EV, EV to full Kelly, full Kelly to your chosen qKelly fraction, then exact model stake to rounded practical stake.
EV is calculated as current odds divided by fair price, minus one. If commission is entered, the calculator reduces the win-side odds first, then calculates EV from the adjusted decimal return.
Full Kelly is the calculated EV divided by the net profit odds. The qKelly stake then multiplies that full Kelly percentage by your chosen fraction, such as 25% for quarter Kelly.
The model qKelly stake is shown exactly, then the practical stake is rounded down to the selected increment. That keeps the calculation auditable while making the stake easier to execute and record.
